Normal monsoon likely after a gap of two years

PUNE: India is likely to enjoy a normal monsoon this year, a senior weather scientist has said, raising hopes that the country may be able to reduce its dependence on imports for maize, pulses and wheat, among other commodities, after two years of below-average rainfall.
The scientist, who works with the India Meteorological Department, spoke on condition of anonymity since the department usually issues its monsoon forecast in April.
According to Indian weather forecast models, the El Nino phenomenon, which was responsible for last year’s drought, is expected to turn neutral during the monsoon season. El Nino entails an increase in sea surface temperatures in central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Indian scientists have ruled out the possibility of La Nina conditions, refuting the forecast by some global agencies. La Nina conditions normally lead to higher rainfall in India during the monsoon season.
The IMD had correctly forecast a drought in 2015. However, from this year it has decided to drop the word ‘drought’ from its official long-range forecast. Besides, its forecast will be done at the sub-divisional level.

Two consecutive droughts had led to a drastic reduction in stocks of important commodities and forced India to import maize after a gap of 16 years while private millers started importing wheat from last year. The government has already started the process to import pulses this year, after turning to the overseas markets in 2015.